Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 9.255970e-05 0.000112 0.000132 0.000155 0.000181 0.000209 0.000240
2024-10-20 6.761571e-05 0.000091 0.000119 0.000152 0.000190 0.000232 0.000283
2024-10-27 5.527757e-05 0.000081 0.000113 0.000152 0.000200 0.000254 0.000319
2024-11-03 4.023322e-05 0.000066 0.000099 0.000142 0.000196 0.000259 0.000337
2024-11-10 3.646323e-05 0.000064 0.000101 0.000150 0.000213 0.000287 0.000381
2024-11-17 2.862504e-05 0.000056 0.000094 0.000146 0.000215 0.000298 0.000403
2024-11-24 2.197559e-05 0.000048 0.000086 0.000140 0.000213 0.000302 0.000418
2024-12-01 1.701592e-05 0.000042 0.000080 0.000136 0.000213 0.000310 0.000438
2024-12-08 1.330024e-05 0.000037 0.000075 0.000133 0.000214 0.000318 0.000456
2024-12-15 9.823127e-06 0.000031 0.000069 0.000128 0.000213 0.000323 0.000470
2024-12-22 7.656260e-06 0.000028 0.000065 0.000126 0.000215 0.000332 0.000490
2024-12-29 6.003786e-06 0.000025 0.000063 0.000126 0.000219 0.000343 0.000513
2025-01-05 3.744591e-06 0.000021 0.000059 0.000126 0.000228 0.000367 0.000559
2025-01-12 1.872257e-06 0.000017 0.000053 0.000122 0.000232 0.000383 0.000596
2025-01-19 1.009786e-06 0.000014 0.000051 0.000123 0.000241 0.000407 0.000643
2025-01-26 2.247269e-07 0.000010 0.000043 0.000114 0.000235 0.000409 0.000661
2025-02-02 1.194796e-07 0.000009 0.000044 0.000122 0.000254 0.000446 0.000725
2025-02-09 5.899166e-09 0.000007 0.000040 0.000118 0.000255 0.000458 0.000757
2025-02-16 NaN 0.000005 0.000035 0.000113 0.000253 0.000465 0.000781
2025-02-23 NaN 0.000004 0.000032 0.000109 0.000254 0.000477 0.000811
2025-03-02 NaN 0.000003 0.000029 0.000106 0.000256 0.000489 0.000842
2025-03-09 NaN 0.000002 0.000026 0.000102 0.000255 0.000496 0.000866
2025-03-16 NaN 0.000001 0.000024 0.000101 0.000258 0.000511 0.000901